Hello From Pagosa Country!
We received a dusting of snow in town last night, and the ski area only received 3 inches. Currently, Wolf Creek Ski Area has a 71 inch base. This will be plenty of snow for the Spring Breakers coming in over the next couple of weeks. No powder days in sight, but also no worries for those traveling to get here.
In other local news, vacation rentals are still a hot topic. What is the right balance between property rights and the need for affordable housing for locals? The Realtor community is fighting for no restrictions, but I expect we will see some kind of quota system on the horizon.
Nationally, the elephant in the room is coronavirus. There is a lot of fear of the unknown. The stock market is in turmoil. The consumer is listening to a lot of bad news. The travel and leisure industry is hurting. Laurie and I had booked a two-week dream vacation to Italy, and we were supposed to fly into Milan. That’s on hold for now. I’m glad we have travel insurance! Now where will we go? Maybe some place safer and closer to home. Maybe we drive and stay off of airplanes for now.
Pagosa Springs is probably one of the safest places in the world. How will this affect our local real estate market? Interest rates are currently falling and are at historic lows. A 30-year fixed rate mortgage is currently at 3.5% and a 15-year is at 2.75%. If the virus causes a recession, the second home and vacation home market could retreat, and prices could fall. We’ve just received word that the Fed has dropped the federal-funds interest rate by 0.5%. This could have some positive effect on the economy and could affect mortgage rates as well.
So far this year, the market is as strong as I’ve seen in years. Home sales are up 43%. Condo sales are up 333%. Inventory is way down. Land sales are still the softest part of the market, down 32%, but overall sales are up 10%. Of course, all these numbers reflect a very small sample size, with the new year being only two months old. A leading indicator which is currently very strong is pending sales. We have 102 pending sales right now compared to 68 last year at this time.
I try to be a glass-half-full type of guy, so I’m cautiously optimistic that things will improve and the world isn’t going to end. But we need to at least be prepared.
GRI, CRS
2011 & 2014 Realtor of the Year
Phone (970) 731-4065
Fax (970) 731-4068
Cell (970) 946-3856
Email: [email protected]
