The fall colors are gorgeous this year and getting prettier every day. I expect them to peak in about a week. After experiencing the hottest and driest summer I can remember in the 40 years I’ve lived here, the monsoons finally showed up in September. In fact, it’s raining hard as I write! There are rumors we are expecting an El Nino weather pattern this year which could make for a very snowy winter. Personally, I’m not a big fan of the white stuff, but I’ll take all the moisture Mother Nature will grace us with. It was nice to see Navajo Lake full for a change this past summer.
September was a busy month for all the merchants around town. We had some kind of festival going on every weekend. The beginning of October means less traffic and a mellow time for locals to enjoy. Come the middle of the month, the big game hunters will start to arrive. The first rifle season starts October 14, with several more seasons running through November. Hunters come to town with their buddies and family members as part of a tradition handed down from one generation to the next. They dream of bagging a trophy and putting meat on the table. The orange on their backs matches the fall foliage, and the greenbacks in their pockets are much appreciated by the local merchants, who need a little boost to hold them over until ski season starts in another month or so.
Now for the latest real estate news. Little by little we are catching up with last year’s sales. Back in June, we were down 45% on the year, but today we’re only down 25%. Sales in the month of September were just about the same as last year, and the pending sales today are similar as well. Check out the charts below.
Home sales are down 14%. All price categories are down except for the price range of $500,000 to $600,000, which is up 80%. There have been 54 sales in this price range so far in 2023, compared to 30 last year at this time.
Home inventory is very similar to last year. The biggest increase in inventory is the $1 million plus category, which is up 22%. There are 67 properties listed above $1,000,000 today compared to 55 a year ago. However, there are many pending sales in this category at present.
Condo and townhome sales are down 36% so far this year, and inventory is up 94%. There are 33 condos and townhomes on the market today compared to 17 a year ago. Land sales are down 32% with inventory up 11%. I believe that land sales are suffering because prices have skyrocketed recently, and the quality of the inventory is not as good as it used to be. Most of the cherry building sites have already been built on over the years. Building permits are down as well, with 73 so far this year compared to 114 last year at this time. Look at the stats below for the full story.
One bright spot in the vacant land arena is in Chris Mountain Village. The County has applied for a grant of $1,300,000 to finish off all the roads and electricity in this area. They’ll know sometime in November whether or not they have been successful. If there is any money left over at the end, they’re planning to do roads and electricity in some areas of Pagosa Trails as well.
The County recently attempted to auction off 36 lots in Pagosa Trails which they had acquired over the years. Most of these were likely a result of unpaid property tax bills. The auction only saw one bidder meet the minimum bid, so the remaining 35 lots didn’t sell. The good news is that the County has decided to donate the lots for affordable housing.
The biggest hiccup facing the real estate market today is the continued rise in mortgage rates. Rates are the highest they’ve been in many years. Today the 30-year fixed rate is at 7.75%, and the 15-year is at 7%. Rates for vacation homes are even higher, in the 8.5% range. These high rates are keeping a lot of people on the sidelines – both buyers and sellers. Buyers suddenly can’t afford properties which they could have afforded a year ago. And sellers are hesitant to trade in their existing 3% mortgages, because they know they’ll be paying nearly 8% on the next one.
So long for now. Take a ride through the mountains and enjoy the beautiful fall colors. Be thankful that you live here or have the opportunity to vacation here.
GRI, CRS
2011 & 2014 Realtor of the Year
Phone (970) 731-4065
Fax (970) 731-4068
Cell (970) 946-3856
Email: [email protected]
